(Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will probably cut its benchmark interest rate today for the first time in four years, seeking insurance against a recession. The main question is how big a policy Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is ready to buy.
While a quarter-point reduction in the federal funds rate may not be enough to bolster growth and investor confidence, a half-point cut might fan inflation and be perceived as giving in to pressure from Wall Street firms that made bad bets, especially in the market for securities backed by subprime mortgages.
Bernanke and fellow policy makers ``are really caught,'' said Robert Eisenbeis, a former research director at the Fed's bank in Atlanta who attended meetings of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee before retiring early this year. ``The Fed needs to avoid the perception of bailing out the markets, lenders or borrowers.''
The FOMC will opt today for a quarter-point cut to 5 percent in the rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans, according to the median prediction of 134 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Twenty-three of the forecasters projected a half-point move, which traders think is coming sooner or later: Interest-rate futures indicate a rate of 4.5 percent by year-end. The decision is scheduled for about 2:15 p.m. in Washington.
Most-Analyzed Statement
Whatever today's decision, the statement accompanying it may be the most-analyzed in years. Reports portray a weakening economy: The Labor Department said Sept. 7 that that the U.S. last month suffered its first job losses since 2003. Investors will look for hints of further cuts -- such as a pledge to act as needed to safeguard the six-year expansion -- or language that plays down the risk of higher inflation.
``The markets will be disappointed by 25 basis points,'' said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. ``If they do more now, they may be more cautiously optimistic in the statement. If they do 25 basis points, they will commit to doing more. You can argue it either way for which is the more powerful.''
The Fed's decision today will come hours after the government report on August wholesale prices; the Consumer Price Index is released tomorrow. As recently as the last FOMC meeting Aug. 7, officials said inflation was the ``predominant'' risk to the U.S. economy.
Just 10 days later, the Fed acknowledged that ``downside risks to growth have increased appreciably'' and pledged to ``act as needed.'' Policy makers will probably use similar language today, economists said.
`A Considerable Amount'
``The statement will point to the growth rate as the predominant policy influence and give the market the flexibility to price in a considerable amount of easing,'' said Brian Sack, vice president at Macroeconomic Advisers LLC in Washington and a former Fed economist.
Bernanke, 53, and his team may take additional steps to increase liquidity, including lowering the discount rate --which the fed charges on loans it makes to banks -- or altering terms for collateral used for loans from the central bank, economists said.
In their public comments, Fed officials have diverged in their assessments of risks to growth, making today's meeting particularly tough for analysts to handicap.
Since the August jobs report, Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin and San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen have highlighted threats to consumer spending. By contrast, Fed bank Presidents Richard Fisher in Dallas and Charles Plosser in Philadelphia noted signs of resilience in the economy.
No Cave-In
At the same time, all agree the Fed doesn't want to be seen as caving in to funds that piled into the market for securities linked to subprime mortgages, those made to borrowers with poor or limited credit histories.
As defaults on such loans climbed, investors fled, making it tough for some companies to obtain credit; the market for asset-backed commercial paper shrank the most in at least seven years.
``It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve --nor would it be appropriate -- to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions,'' Bernanke said in an Aug. 31 speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Anything seen as a bailout might increase ``moral hazard'' -- spurring investors to take on even more risk, comfortable in the belief the Fed will make good their losses.
Rivlin Regrets
Former officials including Alice Rivlin, who was a Fed vice chairman under Bernanke's predecessor Alan Greenspan, have expressed regret over cutting rates three times in 1998. The economy continued to expand with little harm from turmoil in financial markets at the time, data later showed.
``The moral hazard argument is a powerful one,'' said Philip Orlando, who helps manage $260 billion as chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors Inc. in New York. As a result, he predicted, ``the market is wont to be disappointed'' by today's decision.
Others say policy makers will focus more on the recent economic data showing signs of a sputtering economy. Besides the decline in August payrolls, retail sales and industrial production rose less than forecast last month, and the Commerce Department may say tomorrow that builders broke ground on the fewest new homes since 1995.
Bernanke and fellow policy makers ``are trying to step away from the Greenspan model,'' said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Mesirow Financial Inc. in Chicago. ``But at the end of the day, they will act the same.''
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