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Saturday, September 29, 2007

Turn up the volumes

Turn up the volumes
Baltimore Sun - First, there was the enthusiastic Caitlin Friedman and Kimberly Yorio, authors of The Girl's Guide to Being a Boss (Without Being a Bitch) and The Girl's Guide to Starting Your Own Business. They told women to "be yourself" and to always speak the

Redefining a word eases reactor policy
Baltimore Sun - On tree-lined bluffs overlooking the Chesapeake Bay, where anti-nuclear activists won a landmark environmental victory 36 Maryland Weather Traffic News Sports Lifestyle Business Real Estate Investing Careers Your Money Technology Business Columnists Opinion Travel

A Country on the Edge
Washington Post - The minister of public security is a Politburo member for the first time since the Cultural Revolution, Shirk notes, but only one person with business experience has become an alternate member of the party's Central Committee, a significantly lower

New wave of Md. laws
Baltimore Sun - The law was praised by Progressive Maryland, a liberal coalition of business and religious groups that has lobbied for such a measure for years. "The bill is a huge improvement over what came before it," said Sean Dobson, executive director of

AP Photo PX201, NY151, NY150, PABB104
USA Today - There comes a time when the honeymoon has got to be over and you've got to get down to business," Holmgren said of the pair. Injuries already threaten a quick start for the Flyers. Upshall (wrist) could miss up to six weeks Umberger (hand) could miss

Political Stardom Profitable for Obama
Forbes - But Obama has since said it was a mistake to do business with Rezko, who was indicted last year on charges he sought kickbacks from companies doing business with an Illinois state pension fund. Rezko and his companies contributed nearly $20,000 to

Wisconsin in need of an offensive surge vs. MSU
Detroit Free Press - Wisconsin in need of an offensive surge vs. MSU September 29, 2007 By Jeff Potrykus Milwaukee Journal Sentinel MADISON, Wis Business Front Michigan Nation/World My Market Watch Air Travel Technology Real Estate Autos Front Auto Reviews Auto Shows Features Front

Business news in brief
Philadelphia Inquirer - ING Bank, Wilmington, said it would assume an estimated $1.4 billion in deposits and 104,000 customers from NetBank, Alpharetta, Ga., which the federal Office of Thrift Supervision closed yesterday. Netbank, which was started in 1996, "sustained

CORRECTING and REPLACING Yingli Green Energy Contributes Additional
MSN MoneyCentral - Additionally, Yingli Green Energy is one of the limited number of large-scale PV companies in China to have adopted vertical integration as its business model. Yingli Green Energy currently plans to gradually expand annual production capacity of

US sniper gets 5-month sentence in Iraq
Miami Herald - News Sports Entertainment Business Tropical Life Opinion Jobs Cars Real Estate Shopping Classifieds elnuevoherald.com Breaking News | Miami A military panel on Saturday sentenced an Army sniper to five months in prison, a reduction in rank and forfeiture of pay

Friday, September 28, 2007

Dollar Hits Another Low Against Euro

Dollar Hits Another Low Against Euro
Newsday - NEW YORK - The U.S. dollar dropped to a record low against the euro for a sixth consecutive session Thursday, sagging under expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut next month. The dollar has skidded to new lows against the European currency

Babcock & Brown, Coca-Cola Amatil: Australian Stock Preview
Bloomberg - Crude oil rose more than $2 a barrel after the U.S. currency fell to a record low against the euro, boosting the appeal of commodities as alternative investments. Investors purchased oil on speculation a U.S. report showing a drop in new

Oil surges to fresh highs on storm threat
News.com.au - The weak dollar was also lending support to oil prices as foreign investors find it cheaper to invest in the dollar-denominated commodity, analysts noted. Earlier today, the US currency plunged against the euro to a fresh all-time low point of 1.4189

New Zealand Economic Growth Slows Less Than Expected (Update2)
Bloomberg - New Zealand's currency and bank-bill yields rose as investors reduced bets that Bollard will cut rates. ``The Reserve Bank's right at the top end of the inflation target band and they've got no room to accommodate upside surprises,'' said

Yen Little Changed Against Dollar, Euro After Japan Price Data
Bloomberg - The yen is a weak currency,'' said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``Consumer price data may confirm that overseas assets will remain attractive. Some banks are even bringing forward the launch of new

Thursday, September 27, 2007

9 Killed in 2nd Day of Myanmar Crackdown

9 Killed in 2nd Day of Myanmar Crackdown
Forbes - The action freezes any assets the 14 have in U.S. banks or other financial institutions under U.S. jurisdiction, and also prohibits any U.S. citizens from doing business with those individuals. "The world is watching the people of Burma take to the

Dollar Shrugs off Soft Data

by Korman Tam

The dollar was little changed against the euro and sterling
despite a sharply weaker than expected August US durable
goods orders. The typically more volatile figure reversed
its previous month's gains, with the headline number
falling by 4.9% versus a 6.0% increase from July.
Meanwhile, the excluding transportations reading posted a
1.8% drop compared with a 3.8% gain in the previous month.
The disappointing data however, were overshadowed by a
strong opening in the US equity bourses after an agreement
was reached between GM and UAW to end the strike of auto
workers. Moreover, the yen weakened across the board amid
gains in global equities.

Traders will turn to several key reports due out in the
Thursday session, consisting of Q2 GDP, Q2 PCE, August new
home sales, weekly jobless claims and Q2 corporate profits.
The final GDP growth figure is seen softer at 3.9%, down
from 4.0% in the preliminary reading. The Fed's preferred
gauge of inflation, the PCE is unchanged from the previous
quarter – with the headline figure holding steady at 4.2%
and the core PCE reading at 1.3%. Weekly jobless claims are
seen creeping up slightly to 316k, from 311k last week.

Advertisement Sterling Mixed

The sterling traded sideways against the dollar, hovering
above the 2.01-level while edging higher versus the yen
toward the 233-mark. Data released overnight revealed
slightly stronger than expected economic growth from the UK
for the second quarter, with the annualized figure edging
out estimates for an unchanged reading at 3.0%, instead
growing at 3.1% and the quarterly reading steady at 0.8%.
The current account deficit was also smaller than
anticipated at 9.1 billion sterling, shrinking from 12.2
billion sterling in the first quarter.

In the session ahead, UK data will include September
nationwide house prices and CBI distributive trades. The
pound continues to be weighed by fears of a UK credit
crunch and its subsequent impact on the overall economy,
thereby raising expectations that the next rate move by the
Bank of England will be a cut.

Cable has retreated since testing the descending trendline
resistance at 2.03 earlier in the week and holds steady
above the 2.01-mark. We expect the pair to continue to
trade sideways and lag in performance relative to the euro
or Aussie against the dollar, as a result of tempered rate
hike expectations. Support begins at 2.0120, followed by
2.01 and 2.0070. Additional floors will emerge at 2.0040,
backed by 2 and 1.9970 and 1.9940. Gains will target
initial resistance at 2.0180, followed by 2.02 and 2.0230.
Subsequent ceilings are seen at 2.0275 and 2.03.

Wednesday, September 26, 2007

Dollar Shrugs off Soft Data

by Korman Tam

The dollar was little changed against the euro and sterling
despite a sharply weaker than expected August US durable
goods orders. The typically more volatile figure reversed
its previous month's gains, with the headline number
falling by 4.9% versus a 6.0% increase from July.
Meanwhile, the excluding transportations reading posted a
1.8% drop compared with a 3.8% gain in the previous month.
The disappointing data however, were overshadowed by a
strong opening in the US equity bourses after an agreement
was reached between GM and UAW to end the strike of auto
workers. Moreover, the yen weakened across the board amid
gains in global equities.

Traders will turn to several key reports due out in the
Thursday session, consisting of Q2 GDP, Q2 PCE, August new
home sales, weekly jobless claims and Q2 corporate profits.
The final GDP growth figure is seen softer at 3.9%, down
from 4.0% in the preliminary reading. The Fed's preferred
gauge of inflation, the PCE is unchanged from the previous
quarter – with the headline figure holding steady at 4.2%
and the core PCE reading at 1.3%. Weekly jobless claims are
seen creeping up slightly to 316k, from 311k last week.

Advertisement Sterling Mixed

The sterling traded sideways against the dollar, hovering
above the 2.01-level while edging higher versus the yen
toward the 233-mark. Data released overnight revealed
slightly stronger than expected economic growth from the UK
for the second quarter, with the annualized figure edging
out estimates for an unchanged reading at 3.0%, instead
growing at 3.1% and the quarterly reading steady at 0.8%.
The current account deficit was also smaller than
anticipated at 9.1 billion sterling, shrinking from 12.2
billion sterling in the first quarter.

In the session ahead, UK data will include September
nationwide house prices and CBI distributive trades. The
pound continues to be weighed by fears of a UK credit
crunch and its subsequent impact on the overall economy,
thereby raising expectations that the next rate move by the
Bank of England will be a cut.

Cable has retreated since testing the descending trendline
resistance at 2.03 earlier in the week and holds steady
above the 2.01-mark. We expect the pair to continue to
trade sideways and lag in performance relative to the euro
or Aussie against the dollar, as a result of tempered rate
hike expectations. Support begins at 2.0120, followed by
2.01 and 2.0070. Additional floors will emerge at 2.0040,
backed by 2 and 1.9970 and 1.9940. Gains will target
initial resistance at 2.0180, followed by 2.02 and 2.0230.
Subsequent ceilings are seen at 2.0275 and 2.03.

Skagit and Whatcom counties ranked high in economic growth

Skagit and Whatcom counties ranked high in economic growth
Seattle Times - The Seattle area was the 13th-biggest contributor to gross domestic product among the nation's metropolitan areas in 2005, according to newly released estimates from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Metro Seattle — defined as King, Pierce and

Stock Market Update - Wed Sep 26 16:25:01 EDT 2007
Reuters - All 10 economic sectors ended the day in positive territory, with consumer discretionary (+1.0%), consumer staples (+0.9%) and materials (+0.9%) scoring the largest gains. Energy (+0.2%), which was down for a good part of the day, posted a modest

NAVTEQ(R) Map Data and NAVTEQ Traffic(TM) Services Selected by
Forbes - Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in global political, economic, business, competitive, market and regulatory factors. NAVTEQ does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements

UN Council Holds Emergency Meeting on Myanmar Crisis (Update2)
Bloomberg - Member states must use their ``diplomatic and economic leverage'' on the regime, he added. The U.S. will tighten economic sanctions on junta leaders ``and their financial backers'' and expand a visa ban ``on those most responsible for the

Chile Economic Growth to Slow to 5.3 Percent in 2008, IMF Says
Bloomberg - Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Chile's economy will slow in 2008, as rising food and oil prices, natural gas shortages and tightening global liquidity pose risks to the country's growth, the International Monetary Fund said. Chile's economy will grow 5.3

Best Buy Realigns Leadership Team to Accelerate Future Growth
Forbes - Among the factors that could cause actual results and outcomes to differ materially from those contained in such forward-looking statements are the following: general economic conditions, acquisitions and development of new businesses, divestitures

Traders betting on home price declines
CNBC - It will upset balance sheets, it will upset lots of our economic institutions," said Shiller, who argues that prices were driven higher by greed, not people looking to buy a place to live. Adjusting for inflation, housing prices have soared 86

UPDATE: WTO Internet Gambling Ruling Could Require U.S. to Pay $100
Forbes - Currently, the European Union (representing 27 member states), India, Japan, Australia, Canada, Costa Rica, Macao, and CARICOM (representing 15 Caribbean nations) have joined Antigua and Barbuda in seeking compensation from the U.S. for economic

Statoil says Snohvit partnership stops oil development for economic
Forbes - OSLO (Thomson Financial) - Statoil ASA said the Snohvit partnership has decided to stop all work related to the oil zone development at the Snohvit field in the Barents Sea. 'Evaluations undertaken show that such a development would not be

Pound Falls on Credit Squeeze; Pares Decline After BOE Auction

The pound fell against the dollar on speculation the
squeeze on short-term bank lending will hurt the economy
and reduce demand for higher-yielding assets.

The pound also traded near the lowest since January 2005
versus the euro before a report tomorrow that may show
house- price growth slowed this month, according to
economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The U.K. currency pared
losses after the Bank of England said its three-month
auction of emergency cash for the money markets today
didn't receive a single bid from banks.

``We're pretty bearish on sterling,'' said Russell Jones,
London-based head of global fixed-income and currency
research at RBC Capital Markets, the investment-banking arm
of Canada's biggest lender by assets. ``The trigger is
going to be the fact that the Bank of England is the
central bank most likely to follow the Fed's example'' and
pare borrowing costs.

The pound fell to $2.0177 by 2 p.m. in London, after
earlier declining as far as $2.0106 and from $2.0186
yesterday. It was little changed at 69.99 per euro, after
earlier sliding to 70.28 pence.

The absence of any bids for the 10 billion pounds ($20
billion) offered by the Bank of England stoked speculation
strains in the money market aren't as bad as some imagined,
buoying the pound. The central bank acknowledged that at a
minimum 1 percentage point above the central bank's main
lending rate of 5.75 percent, the funds available at
today's auction were ``expensive.''

`Reputation' Risk

Banks may also have turned down the emergency funding for
fear their identities would be revealed.

``There was no incentive for the banks'' to bid for money
today ``from a reputation perspective,'' said Harvinder
Sian, a fixed-income strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in
London. ``They had an incentive not to, simply because if
that information was released or ever got out, it could
have created rumors'' about their creditworthiness.

Nationwide Building Society, the U.K.'s fourth-largest
mortgage lender, will tomorrow probably say the cost of a
home rose 0.3 percent this month, from 0.6 percent in
August.

``The economy is going to weaken because of the decline in
global property prices,'' said Hans Guenter Redeker, head
of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London.
``Sterling has further downward potential.'' Investors
should ``prepare'' for a decline to 75 pence to the euro,
he said.

The pound stayed lower after a government report today
showed economic growth held at 0.8 percent in the second
quarter.

Gilts fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond
rising 2 basis points to 5.04 percent.

The implied rate on the December interest-rate futures
contract fell 4 basis point to 6.14 percent, suggesting the
Bank of England may follow the Federal Reserve's Sept. 18
rate cut to spur the economy.

The contract settles to the three-month London interbank
offered rate for the pound, which has averaged about 16
basis points more than the benchmark rate over the past
decade.

Japanese govt bonds close mostly higher on gains in US Treasurys

Japanese govt bonds close mostly higher on gains in US Treasurys
CNBC - TOKYO (Thomson Financial) - Japanese government bond prices closed mostly higher Wednesday, with investors heartened by gains in US Treasurys after weak US economic data raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again

Electrocomponents sees H1 revenue up around 7 pct
Reuters - While we are watchful of the general macro economic conditions, and those in North America in particular, the board is confident that this financial year will be another of good progress," Electrocomponents said in a statement. ((Reporting by Dan

TFN NEWS BRIEFING: TMT highlights to 09:10 BST
CNBC - 2007-09-26 01:51:45 Stocks end mixed amid economic concerns NEW YORK (AP) - businessminute Stocks ended mixed Tuesday as investors grappled with concerns about consumer spending in some parts of the economy while technology stocks

From a Foot-Dragging Fed to a Rate Cut Too Far: Caroline Baum
Bloomberg - The Fed had an inflation bias back in August,'' says Joe Carson, head of global economic research at AllianceBernstein. ``They restated it in September,'' saying some inflation risks remain. In this case, the Fed's actions speak louder than

Charlie Rose interviews President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran
International Herald Tribune - PRES. MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD, IRAN (through translator): You know, the European countries are very good partners of ours. We have comprehensive economic agreements with them, over $100 billion contracts annually with Europe alone. So where is the

Asian markets mixed as Japan mulls new govt; Australian miners dip
CNN Money - offered few surprises -- 13 of Fukuda's ministers also served under his predecessor Shinzo Abe. Hiroichi Nishi, general manager of equities at Nikko Cordial Securities, said the news caused few ripples with investors more focused on important economic

Thomson Financial UK at a glance share guide
Forbes - US economic conditions appear to worsen as consumer confidence falls to a 22-month low and a rise in the stock of unsold homes increases the risk that house prices will decline - FT * Social housing company Connaught poised to acquire environmental

Stocks End Mixed Amid Economic Concerns
Forbes - Stocks ended mixed Tuesday as investors grappled with concerns about consumer spending in some parts of the economy while technology stocks showed broad gains. Stocks pared losses from early in the session to trade largely flat when investors tried

Protestors, forces clash in Myanmar
MSNBC - It would almost certainly put pressure on Myanmar's top economic and diplomatic supporter, China, which is eager to burnish its international image before next year's Olympics in Beijing. If monks who are leading the protests are mistreated, that

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

USD Slumps on Data. by Korman Tam

The dollar was dragged lower in the Tuesday session on the
heels of lackluster US economic reports, plunging to a new
record low versus the euro at 1.4154 and again falling to
parity against the Loonie. We expect the greenback to
remain under pressure over the coming months amid
persistent worries that the US economy may slump into
recession and the increased prospects for additional rate
cuts from the FOMC.

The data released earlier in the session reinforced the
pessimism surrounding the US economy, with consumer
confidence and housing reports pointing toward further
weakness. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index
tumbled to its lowest level in nearly 2-years, at 99.8 for
September down sharply from August at 105.6. The dismal
confidence figure reflects heightened market volatility,
growing uncertainties stemming from the housing market and
worries over the prospects of a US recession. There was
also renewed evidence of the slumping housing market with
existing home sales down 4.3% at 5.49 million units, versus
5.75 million units in July.

Euro Climbs to Record High

The single currency jumped to another fresh all-time high
against the greenback despite a softer than expected
reading from Germany's Ifo sentiment survey. The euro
continues to benefit from fears of further deterioration in
US economic fundamentals, and now sets its sights on the
next key psychological resistance at the 1.42-level.
Moreover, the outlook for interest rates between the Fed
and the ECB also remains favorable for the euro, with the
FOMC likely to further ease policy while the ECB is seen
tightening by at least 25-basis points before the end of
the year.

ECB Board member Liebscher reinforced the economic strength
of the Eurozone. Despite the prevailing downside risks,
Liebscher said the Eurozone economy is in a good state and
that the economic expansion remains dynamic. Meanwhile, the
ECB's Garganas sounded a hawkish tone, suggesting that
"upside risks to price inflation dominate any effects
stemming from the appreciation of the euro". He deems the
main drivers of Eurozone inflation are domestic, but added
that it was appropriate to await more information prior to
taking additional action. Garganas also added that the
primary impact of recent market turbulence would be higher
risk perception and would otherwise not affect the main
scenario.

Germany's Ifo sentiment survey was lower than forecast,
with the business climate index falling to 104.2, compared
with calls for 105 and down from 105.8 a month earlier. The
current conditions component slipped to 109.9, versus
estimates for a smaller decline to 111.0 from 111.5, while
the expectations index dropped to 98.7 and down from 100.4.
The Ifo said that the initial signs of "brake to growth"
emerging and that the retail sector climate has
deteriorated considerably. However, it added there was no
strong impact on export expectations from a stronger euro.
The Ifo's chief economist Nerb believes that the German
business climate has been impacted by the market turbulence
and foresees a softening in the Germany economic rebound
rather than an end.

Eurozone economic data over the coming sessions will reveal
further clues into the state of the region's economy. The
reports will include Eurozone money supply, Germany's
September labor report, Eurozone sentiment surveys, and the
September Eurozone HICP.

- by Korman Tam

Monday, September 24, 2007

Dollar Mired Near Lows

The dollar continues to reel from last week's 50-basis
point Fed rate cut, falling overnight to a fresh record low
against the euro at 1.4129 and stumbling versus the
sterling to 2.0316. Renewed fears of a faltering US economy
will continue to drive the foreign exchange market this
week as concerns of a possible recession weigh on the
greenback. However, given the abrupt nature of the Fed's
aggressive ease, traders must keep a close eye on US
inflation data for fear that the 50-basis point rate cut
may strengthen inflationary pressure over the coming
quarters.

Economic data slated for release this week will provide
further clues on the US outlook, with reports to shed light
on growth, the housing market, inflation, manufacturing,
and consumer sentiment. On the whole, consensus estimates
look for weaker data compared with the previous releases.
The housing market slump will continue to lead the
deterioration in US fundamentals, with August existing home
sales seen falling to 5.49 million units, versus 5.75
million units previously and new home sales forecasted to
drop to 830k units compared with 870k units in July. The
final reading of Q2 GDP is estimated to be revised lower to
3.9%, from 4.0%, while the Fed's preferred gauge on
inflation is seen unchanged in Q2 with core PCE standing
pat at 1.3%. Additionally, durable goods orders and Chicago
PMI will provide more clues on the extent of the slowdown
in manufacturing. Although durable goods orders are
typically a volatile figure, estimates are calling for the
number to fall by 3.1% in August, reversing the previous
month's 6.0% increase. The excluding transports reading is
also seen declining, down by 1% versus a 3.8% gain a month
earlier.

With additional monetary policy easing expected from the
Fed this year, particular emphasis will be placed on the
outlooks for central bank decisions from the ECB, BoE and
BoJ. Among the banks, only the ECB is expected to maintain
its current tightening cycle with another 25-basis point
rate hike before year-end. However, economic data from the
Eurozone will be closely scrutinized to assess the impact
thus far on the region's economy from previous rate hikes.
Traders will turn to Germany's September Ifo sentiment
survey, due out early Tuesday morning at 4:00 AM, and is
seen softening from August. The September Ifo expectations
component is seen declining to 99.5, down from 100.4, while
the current conditions figure is forecasted to fall to 111
versus 111.5.

Meanwhile, both the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England
are expected to leave policy unchanged for the remainder of
the year given the current global and domestic economic
outlook. The BoE is even anticipated to cut rates given
tightening credit conditions and the impact of global
financial volatility on the UK economy. Later in the week,
traders will digest Q2 UK GDP, seen unchanged at 0.7% q/q
and 3.0% y/y.

A barrage of Japanese economic data is due out this week
and will provide further clues as to if and when the BoJ
may raise rates again. Our view is for the Bank to remain
on hold until Q1 2008. The reports slated for release
include the August labor report, retail sales,
manufacturing PMI, CPI, housing spending, industrial
production, and housing starts. With exceptions in
household spending and industrial production, the reports
are largely unchanged from the prior readings. However,
industrial production is estimated to post a strong gain,
improving by 3.2% in August versus a 0.4% decline in the
previous month. Household spending is forecasted to gain by
1.2% compared with a 0.1% decline in the prior month.

Dollar Falls to Record Against Euro on Outlook for Growth, Fed

The dollar fell to a record against the euro and weakened
versus the yen on speculation U.S. growth is losing
momentum, adding to pressure on the Federal Reserve to
reduce interest rates again.

The U.S. currency depreciated to a 15-year low against a
basket of six of its major peers before data tomorrow
forecast to show the lowest home resales in five years and
a drop in consumer confidence. European Central Bank board
member Christian Noyer said today a sudden shift in the
dollar could ``seriously hamper'' global economic growth.

``Dollar weakness will persist,'' said Alan Ruskin, a
senior currency strategist in Greenwich, Connecticut, at
RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. ``Housing is a major
problem for the U.S. economy, and it isn't going to go
away. This is a dollar-negative play.''

The dollar traded at $1.4088 per euro at 1:33 p.m. in New
York, compared with $1.4091 on Sept. 21. The U.S. currency
fell to a record for a third day, touching $1.4130 against
the euro, which debuted in January 1999. The dollar
weakened 0.6 percent to 114.85 yen and slid to $2.0219 per
pound from $2.0203. The yen rose 0.9 percent to 161.79 per
euro.

The U.S. dollar has fallen against 13 out of the 16 most
actively traded currencies this quarter, depreciating 4
percent against the euro and 7.2 percent versus the yen.
For the year, the dollar is down 6.7 percent against the
euro and 3.7 percent versus the yen.

``The U.S. economic outlook argues for further weakness in
the dollar,'' said Ian Stannard, senior currency strategist
in London at BNP Paribas SA. ``We expect the U.S. economy
to slow quite rapidly over the course of the next few
quarters. That will lead to further rate cuts.''

Dollar Indexes

The dollar fell today to the lowest since September 1992 on
the New York Board of Trade index that measures its value
against six major currencies. The Fed trade-weighted dollar
index of major currencies dropped on Sept. 20 to the
weakest since its inception in 1971.

The central bank on Sept. 18 cut its benchmark interest
rate by a half-percentage point to 4.75 percent. The
European Central Bank's rate is 4 percent, and the Bank of
Japan's is 0.5 percent, the lowest among industrialized
nations.

Futures contracts show 70 percent odds of a quarter-
percentage point cut to 4.5 percent at the Fed's next
meeting Oct. 31, up from a 26 percent likelihood a week ago.

The U.S. currency fell today to the weakest against the
Norwegian krone since November 1981 and an eight-week low
versus Malaysia's ringgit.

`Complaints From Europe'

The euro erased its earlier gains against the dollar after
European officials including Noyer expressed concern over
the currency's rise. Luxembourg Prime Minister and Finance
Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said the European Union is
watching currency fluctuations.

``There's a good chance that complaints from Europe will
pick up and that those complaints will carry more weight,''
said Thomas Harr, senior foreign-exchange strategist in
Singapore at Standard Chartered Plc.

The Group of Seven industrial nations will discuss the
strength of the euro at their regular meeting in Washington
next month, the Financial Times Deutschland reported today
without citing its source.

European Industries

Europe's manufacturing and services industries grew this
month at the slowest pace since 2005, a report showed Sept.
21. The manufacturing index declined to 53.2 from 54.3,
while the gauge of services fell to 54 from 58. Both
numbers were lower than economists forecast. A level above
50 indicates growth.

The ECB cut its growth estimate for countries that use the
euro to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent, joining the European
Commission and the International Monetary Fund in becoming
more pessimistic. The economy grew 2.8 percent last year,
the fastest since 2000.

``The euro rally is a bit overdone at this point,'' said
Michael Malpede, a senior currency analyst in Chicago at
Man Global Research. ``Political rhetoric on the euro is
rising. But right now the market isn't paying a lot of
attention. A negative dollar is still the overriding
sentiment in the market.''

The dollar will rise to $1.38 versus the euro by year-end,
according to the median of 46 analyst forecasts compiled by
Bloomberg News.

The National Association of Realtors will probably report
tomorrow that U.S. home resales fell 4.5 percent last month
to an annual rate of 5.49 million, according to the median
forecast of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The
New York-based Conference Board will say its index of
consumer confidence decreased to 104.4 this month from 105
in August, according to the median forecast of 66
economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Dollar Falls to Record Low Against Euro on U.S. Housing Slump

The dollar fell to a record low against the euro and declined versus
the yen on speculation reports on housing and consumer confidence will
add to pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

The U.S. dollar weakened against 12 of the 16 most-active currencies
before data tomorrow that will show the lowest existing home sales in
five years and the weakest household confidence in more than a year,
according to separate Bloomberg News surveys. The currency slid for a
third day against both the British pound and the Canadian dollar.

``The dollar has established significant downside momentum,'' said Ray
Attrill, director of foreign exchange research at Forecast Ltd. in
Sydney. ``Expectations for more Fed easing are reasonably grounded by
expectations for further evidence of housing market weakness.''

The dollar fell to $1.4130 against the euro at 7:02 a.m. in London
from $1.4091 late in New York on Sept. 21. It traded at 115.03 yen
from 115.50 last week. Against the pound, the dollar reached $2.0300,
the lowest since Sept. 13, from $2.0203. It may fall to $1.42 against
the euro this week, Attrill said.

Trading may be less than usual as Japanese markets are closed for the
Autumnal Equinox holiday. Against the Canadian dollar, the U.S.
currency fell to $1.0027 from $0.9992 on Sept. 21, when it declined to
a 31-year low of $1.0064.

Housing Decline

The dollar also slid against Asian currencies on speculation the
region's central banks will keep rates on hold as the Fed lowers
borrowing costs. U.S. home resales fell 4.5 percent to an annual rate
of 5.49 million, according to a survey of economists before the
National Association of Realtors report. The Conference Board index of
consumer confidence dropped to 104.4 this month from 105 in August, a
separate survey showed.

The Malaysian ringgit rose to an eight-week high of 3.4331 against the
dollar. The Philippine peso reached a six-week high of 45.16 and the
Indonesian rupiah advanced to a two-month peak of 9,132.

Since the Fed cut the target for overnight lending between banks by 50
basis points on Sept. 18, traders have pushed the yield on Treasury
two-year notes to almost three quarters of a point below the 4.75
percent benchmark rate.

In the three previous occasions during the past 20 years when that has
happened, policy makers have cut borrowing costs. The Fed next meets
Oct. 30-31.

Futures traders increased their bets that the euro will gain against
the U.S. dollar, according to data from the Washington-based Commodity
Futures Trading Commission.

Futures Bets

The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large
speculators on an advance in the euro compared with those on a drop --
so-called net longs -- was 86,049 on Sep. 18, compared with net longs
of 58,214 a week earlier.

Gains in the yen may be limited by speculation Yasuo Fukuda, the new
leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, will struggle to
pass laws after his likely confirmation as prime minister tomorrow.
The currency may fall against the euro on prospects Fukuda will slow
structural reforms to woo voters.

Outgoing Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation followed the ruling
coalition's loss of control of the upper house after a pension fund
scandal. Signs of a political deadlock may trim bets for a Bank of
Japan interest-rate increase.

New Prime Minister

``Some in the market expect there will be lessened focus on structural
reforms, which could lead to stock weakness,'' said Dai Sato, manager
of the Singapore treasury department at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd.
``The BOJ isn't in an environment where it may be able to raise rates.
The yen is unlikely to strengthen.''

The yen traded at 162.25 against the euro from 162.64. It may decline
to 163.00 per euro today, Sato said.

The odds of the Bank of Japan raising rates next month from 0.5
percent were unchanged at 9 percent, based on calculations by Credit
Suisse Group using overnight interest-rate swaps.

Futures traders reversed bets that the yen will gain against the U.S.
dollar. Yen net shorts against the dollar stood at 21,067 on Sep. 18,
compared with net longs of 5,585 a week earlier, according to CFTC
data.

Gains in the euro were limited as European Central Bank board member
Christian Noyer reiterated the Group of Seven's statement that excess
currency volatility is ``undesirable.''

``Any abrupt change in the dollar value could seriously hamper global
economic growth,'' he said at a conference in Hong Kong today.

The euro's appreciation hurts exports by making them more expensive
overseas, the German Finance Ministry said Sept. 20 in its monthly
report.

``There's a good chance that complaints from Europe will pick up and
that those complaints will carry more weight,'' said Thomas Harr,
senior foreign exchange strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in
Singapore. ``This could cap the upside'' for the euro, which may fall
to $1.40 by the year-end, he said.

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Any views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsibly for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.